Global Market Snapshot 9th December 2024

The market is focused on U.S. non-farm payroll data, with GBP, AUD, and JPY showing divergent trends against the USD. GBP has reached a three-week high but is constrained by resistance at the 200-day moving average; AUD is under pressure due to dovish expectations and remains technically bearish; JPY is supported by the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance, with USD/JPY consolidating near the 150 level. Non-farm payroll data become a key driving factor.

USDJPY Supported by hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, the yen has shown strength against the US dollar, with the exchange rate hovering around 149.94. The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates, while other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are anticipated to cut rates further. A shift in global risk sentiment and the recent decline in US Treasury yields have also bolstered the yen. From a technical perspective, analysts believe that 148.65 serves as the current support level. If the price breaks below the 100-day moving average, it could trigger new bearish momentum. On the resistance side, if there is a rebound, the 150.55 region may act as resistance. The next resistance levels are at 150.70 and the 151.00 psychological threshold. If the price continues to break through these levels, it could push USD/JPY up to 152.00.

GBPUSD is trading near 1.2720, reaching a three-week high. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a cautious approach to rate cuts, along with hopes that U.S. Trump-era policies could fuel inflation, continue to support the dollar. Additionally, geopolitical tensions favour the safe-haven USD. These factors, combined with Bank of England Governor Bailey’s suggestion of four rate cuts in 2025, have limited traders’ bullish bets on the pound and restrained further upside for GBP/USD. The pound’s trajectory will depend on UK GDP data, with potential headwinds if economic contraction persists.

EURUSD Last week, the euro came under pressure due to political instability in France, following a no-confidence vote that led to the collapse of the government, and dovish ECB comments reinforcing expectations of a December rate cut. This week, the euro remains vulnerable to further ECB easing signals.

AUDUSD The Australian dollar has been underperforming recently, with a slight decline of 0.57% to 0.63818. Weak economic growth may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt a more dovish stance at this week’s monetary policy meeting, paving the way for a rate cut in February. Analysts point out that the long-term bearish trend for AUD/USD remains intact. The Australian dollar continues to weaken, with a potential support level at 0.6300. If the price falls below this level, it may attract further selling pressure, pushing it down to 0.6285. On the resistance side, if the price can consistently break above 0.6500, a rebound may occur, targeting 0.6615. Should the price surpass this level, it could challenge the previous high of 0.6687.

BTC Bitcoin remains resilient, trading near the critical psychological level of $100,000.